Deklein by February

2012 promised to kick off with a bang and we were not left disappointed. With several of the largest nullsec entities at each other’s throats it was only a matter of time before these skirmishes escalated into all-out war. The first major war of 2012 erupted between former allies Solar Wing and Legion of xXDeathXx who had previously worked together in toppling the Northern Coalition from its throne. Now however they are more content with killing each other with even their common Russian heritage not being enough to calm the waters. Solar and xXDeathXx are big and powerful enough as it is but both sides drew in support from the likes of Intrepid Crossing, Pandemic Legion and NCDot to name but a few. Even my own TEST Alliance managed to get involved somehow. But whilst this war was being fought and drone regions were won and lost another war was brewing, one which has the potential to eclipse last year’s Great Northern War.

Unless you have been living under a space-rock for the past few weeks then you will have seen the many smug-posts by members of Goonswarm Federation and its allies, as well as the smug-announcements made by GSF leader The Mittani. Whether or not you enjoyed the smug or felt it irritating it was, whichever way you look at it, fully justified – The GSF, with the help of the CFC, managed to take the entire region of Branch, and its many Tech moons, in a blindingly fast time. Even the CFC leadership, despite its smugness, did not anticipate the rate in which they would carve through the region, evident of which through the occasional lack of logistics. The region’s former owners, White Noise, who wrestled ownership of the Tech rich region from the Northern Coalition, simply crumbled under the onslaught of DBRB’s maelstrom masses and Mister Vee’s diabolical bombing runs.

White Noise’s leader made a comment, which became a mini-meme, during his attempt at rousing his people’s spirits in an emergency Christmas alliance meeting; “Deklein by February”. The implication of course being not only would they blunt the GSF’s full frontal attack and push it back but they would continue pushing until the Goons were out of Deklein and VFK being fully in White Noise’s control. White Noise’s leader subsequently failed to turn up to several important strat ops that aimed to defend their space and with the region being lost his comment fell into the realm of the absurd. The comment was reduced to being paraded around on bios, forum signatures and in further announcements and further added to the ridicule of White Noise being ousted from their space in record time. But this meme is again being used by entities hostile to the CFC and this time it is being taken seriously.

Raiden was a DRF member which helped eradicate the Northern Coalition and to establish Russian order in the North. With White Noise residing in Branch Raiden took Tenal and its many moons. While White Noise grew fat and content with Technetium however Raiden continued keeping its military sharp by continually deploying and fighting. Raiden also has a fully active leadership and fleet command roster and, it has to be said, a sickening number of titans and super carriers of which they are not afraid to field. The GSF simply assumed they would continue steam rolling straight through Branch and into Tenal but they did not expect such a ferocious defence to be put up by Raiden. Raiden have in actual fact not only been defending their own Tech moons but have even begun taking the CFC’s newly acquired moons too!  What Raiden and allies lack in sheer numbers they more than make up for with super capitals which, whether you like it or not, prove to be an effective method of taking structures and winning battles.

So when Raiden say they will be in Deklein by February the comment stops being an absurd meme, used to ridicule a failscading alliance, and becomes a stark warning, one which is being taken very seriously by the CFC’s leaders. For those that do not know Raiden consists of two ex-BoB/IT corporations – FinFleet and x13 – who have a natural dislike of the GSF. Raiden also have some very powerful friends such as none other than Pandemic Legion. Ordinarily PL has no blues except those that pay, but the friendship between PL and Raiden is purely strategic which ensures that they have the monopoly on titans and between them own the largest super capital fleet in EVE. With PL comes NCDot who are another highly-skilled and organized PvP alliance, and with NCDot comes Ev0ke who add sorely needed numbers. Add Initiative Mercenaries into the mix and suddenly you have a very serious threat to the CFC’s very survival.

But can they take Deklein? Taking a few Tech moons is one thing but taking an entire region is another entirely, especially when its owners are famous for their nationalistic pride. And let us not forget, when the Northern Coalition fell the DRF tried to invade Deklein by attacking its capital, VFK. What resulted from this was an absolutely embarrassing retreat with dozens of PL supers being trapped and pleads and requested deals for them to be released being ignored. When it comes to war the GSF positively foam at the mouth in anticipation and with the war coming to Deklein they are on home turf. Last summer the GSF “rape caged” (completely surrounding something with anchored bubbles) the entire system including gates and hostile towers. They then manned those rape cages 24/7 with alpha fleets. Even in the hostiles prime time they could not match the GSF for numbers, and with the alpha fleet holding the advantage the invading forces just simply could not make any headway.

Mistakes however can be learned from and it stands to reason that Raiden will take a different approach in evicting the GSF from its space. What then begs to be asked is whether the GSF can effectively, and quickly, adapt. Raiden are certainly not White Noise – in fact Raiden recently told WN that they were not needed and their time in the North was over – and certainly need to be taken seriously. With the past history between the two alliances it is not simply a war of resources but a war of principles.

My opinion is that the end result of the war will simply be down to which side has the best logistics; in war you have losses and on this scale you have hundreds of losses in each battle. Fail to adequately provide the ships for your members to reship into and you stifle your numbers on the battlefield. Once this starts happening you have effectively lost the war. The GSF are famous for their logistical capabilities so the question is whether Raiden & co can match that because, however much they may chest beat, Raiden & co are going to suffer massive losses.

Irrespective of whose side you are on you have to agree that this war is going to be absolutely epic. Very soon you will see Deklein systems, and most likely some Branch and Venal systems too, at the top of Dotlan’s most violent. With the GSF’s newly acquired balls to drop caps and supers, and Raiden’s newly acquired numbers, this really is an even match. And what’s more I shall be there, on the front lines, witnessing every super capital death, every maelstrom fleet welp, and every epic Mister Vee rage and, most importantly, every story of DBRB’s dog. I love EVE, I love nullsec and most of all I love war. 2012: bring it on!